What is the difference between "this evening" and "tonight"?

What is the difference between “this evening” and “tonight”?

Thanks.

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When I hear “evening” I think of the hours of about 6PM to 10PM, while “tonight” would be 8PM to I guess 3 or 4AM. Also, “evening” to me has a connotation of a social activity that “tonight” does not have. So I’d be more likely to say “I’m going to a concert/party/dinner this evening.” but “If it keeps raining, the river may flood tonight.”

I didn’t look up any of this, it is just my personal impression.

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