The chance are vs. chances are?

English as a Second Language English Vocabulary, Grammar and Idioms
1

Hi,

I’ve noticed that many Americans say ‘chances are…’ while I also often read ‘the chances are’. Is it possible that this is an American vs. British English question?

Many thanks,
Torsten

TOEIC listening, photographs: Synchronized swimming

2

Hi Torsten,

I don’t honestly think that is is an Am/Br thing. To me it’s the old chestnut -specificity. In other words ‘the chances are’ relates to particular reasons why something is likely to happen.

Alan

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3

Hi Alan, what do you make of the use of the phrase ‘chances are’ in the following text:

Quite a few people have never heard of Drupal. That’s ok, though, because chances are good that if they browse websites on a daily basis, they’re probably visiting a Drupal site every day.

Thanks,
Torsten

TOEIC short conversations: Trying to reach a co-worker on the phone

4

Hi Torsten,
I am sorry for breaking into your business.
As far as I know “chances are” is an American idiom which means “probably”.
You should take some medicine. “Chances are” you’ll be better tomorrow.
I was sneezing a lot last night. “Chances are” I am staying home today.
I am eager to learn more of it.
Just my 2 cents.

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5

Hi Torsten,

In your sentence:

Quite a few people have never heard of Drupal. That’s ok, though, because chances are good that if they browse websites on a daily basis, they’re probably visiting a Drupal site every day.

I would omit ‘good’ and simply say 'the chances are that if …

Alternatively you could say: there is a good chance that if

In both cases the suggestion is ‘that there is a probability/a likelihood that or simply it is likely that …’ The addition of ‘good’ in the second examples strengthens the likelihood.

Alan

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6

Hi Alan and Joseph,

Many thanks for this. It seems that ‘chances are’ is indeed an American idiom. At least I found this:

Chances are Definition & Meaning - Merriam-Webster.

TOEIC short conversations: At the conference registration table

7

“The chances are” and “Chances are” mean the same thing. The article changes nothing.

As already mentioned, they mean “likely”. It’s more likely to be true than not. “Chances are” is basically short for “The chances are in favor of”.

It might seem intuitive that “chances are good” or “there is a good chance” make it more likely. However it means the opposite. Using the word good makes it less likely, not more likely.

Chances are it will rain tomorrow. ( better than 50% chance of rain )
There is a good chance of rain tomorrow. ( a significant chance, but not necessarily more than 50% )

There is a chance that it will rain tomorrow. ( this gives no indication of how much chance other than it’s not close to 0% or 100% chance )

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