[b]The following appeared as part of an article in an entertainment magazine:
“A series of books based on the characters from a popular movie are consistently best sellers in local bookstores. Seeking to capitalize on the books’ success, Vista Studios is planning to produce a movie sequel based on the books. Due to the success of the books and the original movie, the sequel will undoubtedly be profitable.”[/b]
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.
In the preceding argument the author claims that due to success of a series of books which have written based on the characters of the popular movie, producing a movie based on these books will be successful. Though this argument has some merits, the author reasoning has based on questionable premises and assumptions. Also, he does not have enough evidences to persuade his readers. Consequently, I cannot accept this argument as valid.
First of all, the author reasoning lies on unsubstantiated premises. He cites selling statics of these books only in local bookstores. He does not advance any evidence about selling percentage in other book stores. Also, he does not investigate the reasons that made these books best seller and does not say how late these books remained best seller in local book stores. So, the readers cannot estimate how much were successful these series. Moreover, maybe success of the movie inspired the audience to buy the books. We cannot attribute prosperity of these books to their quality. So, the selling prosperity of the movie that will produce base on these series remain undetermined.
Secondly, the author makes some unproven assumptions. The author has assumed due to success of the movie and after the successful selling of the books, the movie that will produce based on a good books leads to a popular movie. No one can guarantee this issue. There are a lot of examples that the movies that have produced based on the masterpieces do not satisfy the audiences and consequently has not had noticeable success. Furthermore, we do not know that the reader of the book series have been impressed by these books or not?
In sum, this argument suffers from unproven assumptions and unsubstantiated premises. It is not to say entire the passage is without base; however, I do not distinguish this argument as persuasive statement. I think the author should advance more evidences to convince his readers that those series were best seller. Also, he should show this success is based on their eligible not based on the effect of original movie. In addition, the assumptions need to revise and review. It should be proved that people will watch movies that produce based on these books. At the present this reasons does not seem adequate to convince the magazine’s readers.
TOEFL listening lectures: A lecture from a social studies class