It is the first time for me to write the argument, and please rate my essay and give me some comments. I’d be appreciate if you do that for me,thank you!
The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
“Arctic deer live on islands in Canada’s arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are decline. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.”
In this argument, author concludes that the declining populations of arctic deer are due to their unable to follow the age-ole migration pattern. To support the conclusion, the arguer cites the local hunters reported the diminishing of arctic deer recent years. And he also point out it is correlated to the global warming trend. Although the arguer’s reason seems to appealing at the first glance, we may still find out that this argument rests on s series of unsubstantiated assumptions, and is therefore unpersuasive as it stands.
First of all, the major problem of this argument involves the report itself. The statistical reliability of the survey itself is really questionable. Namely, the speaker provides no evident of the number of local hunters are significantly representative of whole arctic hunters in general. That is to say, this report merely involves restricted regional. Lacking information about the size of the survey sample , the arguer can’t draw a broader recommendation base on the result.
Another problem that undermines the argument is that the speaker overlooks other factors that result in the fact that the declining populations of the arctic deer is they were unable to migrate in their age-old pattern. According to the speaker’s conclusion, the reason of declining populations of arctic deer is merely due to they were unable to follow the migration patterns to cross the frozen river. However, in all likelihood, this is simply not the case. Perhaps the deer migrate to other region to find their food, or perhaps the author leaves out the consider of the other region hunters’ report, or perhaps It is possible that local residents make more pollution in the past several years and decreased the number of islands, which is suitable for arctic deer living… In short, the speaker must rule out all other feasible explanations for the disparity.
Moreover, the speaker unfairly assumes that it is the global warming trend lead to the decline of the arctic deer. However, the speaker fails provide any evidence to support this assumption. The mere fact that the change of climate patterns does not necessarily leads to the decline of the populations of arctic deer. It is entirely possible that the global warming trends may have no effects on the specific region. Or perhaps, the deer adept themselves to the warm weather. Thus, given these possible scenarios, the fact global warming proves nothing about the diminishment of the populations of arctic deer.
In sum, the argument is unconvincing because the evidence cited by the author does not effectively support to the author’s conclusion. Therefore, to bolster the argument, the author should provide more information about detail statistical data of the number of arctic deer, and specific temperature of this area. Other possible factors in arctic deer’s living situation must also be taken into account.