“would not have made” can’t refer to the future, but otherwise this is hard to judge without seeing the full context, which I found at investorguide.com/article/63 … ples-aapl/ . The paragraph is rather muddled, especially in its use of tenses. What it’s saying, I think, is that Apple did not make the mistake of releasing the iPhone and iPad together, but there is still a risk that iPad sales could undermine iPhone sales in the future.
Both “that” and “this” are possible. The usual distinction applies: “that” for things perceived to be more distant, and “this” for things perceived to be closer. In the case of abstract things, however, it can be a fine judgement, and there may effectively be little difference. You may prefer “this” just to avoid the slightly awkward “that that”.
(Well, I only read that one paragraph actually!) Sorry Isabelle, I do not understand what you mean by “make the move”. Make what move? If by chance you meant “mistake” instead of “move” then, yes, the analyst knew that Apple had not made the mistake at the time he/she wrote the report.